Predicting referral rate using existing data


(Angela Seeley) #1

Hiya. We are in the early stages of preparing to go from free client-only community (for students/alumni who purchased a course in a physical center) to open community, with tiers of paid online offering that can also funnel into a center course purchase.

We’re working on the business model and most of our estimates feeding into forecasting are based on some current community/MKT/SocialMedia reality…except for the referral rate (what % of existing members will refer someone).

Any guidance on other areas of our community/business data we could look at to make educated estimate? Or examples of rates from your communities?

I have colleagues sending me % of students in centers who refer someone, but this means referring someone to purchase a premium priced course and I would hope our rate would be higher for a low-cost/overdeliver online offering, especially if we make it easy and desirable to refer!

I have at my disposal very recent satisfaction survey data from our members, and all the month-on-month growth, activity, churn, etc.

While we’re at it, any input on educated ways to estimate conversion rate on referrals, or example rates of your own, also appreciated.

Cheers :slight_smile:


(Sarah Hawk) #2

Great questions @Angie_J
I’m not a stats wizard but I’ll see who I can call in. @joecothrel might have some insight.